How many users actually benefit from $99 unlimited?

At 22 Feb 2008 06:36:09 -0800 SMS wrote:

> Yes, I have a feeling that between off-peak and MTM, very few
> subscribers will benefit from a move up to $100 unlimited, while nearly
> _all_ of the heavy users (not using smart phones) will move down to
> $100 unlimited.

But, to be fair, Mrs. Verizon didn't raise any stupid children. While we
all probably know a guy who knows a guy who uses a jillion minutes and
spends $654/month, the reality is those customers are very rare, and
lowering their rate to $99 won't noticably affect ARPU, even if they don't
con folks like you or I into upgraging to the unlimited plan.

I agree with George, however, that the bigger fear will be further plan
consolidation. In the last couple of years w 've seen the virtual
elimination of the $30 and $35 price point, so $40 is now "entry level" for
wireless. How soon before they have only have 2 plans? Say, $50 for 1000
minutes, and $100 for unlimited. It's a slow but standard pattern in
wireless- make a mid-tier plan a "good value," then use it's heavy adoption
as the excuse to drop the low end plan because "no one was taking it
anyway."


> The carriers also better hope that the heavy users don't find out
> about the ways to get unlimited use at much lower cost.

They won't care- they'll just find ways to plug the holes if they become a
problem.

> PagePlus offers unlimited for about $75 per month, and that $75 isn't
> burdened with extra fees and taxes like the $100 unlimited plans are.

It's also not burdened with being easy to find, buy or refill! ;-)

I can see the Fortune 500 company meeting right now... "Johnson, be sure
to hand out the PagePlus refill cards to the Senior VPs- we don't want
their service suspended during the annual meeting in Houston next week!!!
And check eBay again- that 'new' RAZR you obtained for the CFO was pink and
covered with 'Hello Kitty' stickers and he's feeling a little silly having
to talk on it in front of the board!"

> With Sprint and Voicestick, unlimited is $52 plus taxes and fees paid
> to Sprint, and Voicestick offers a lot of other advantages as well.


Too much hassle for most people, and doubles the chance of a service
problem whenever two companies are involved. Voicestick is a fine outfit
for a two-bit VoIP, but when's the last time your cellphone company e-
mailed you to warn you of a five-hour complete system outage so they can
install a new server? I got one from Voicestick in December, with the
outage scheduled in the early morning one week before Christmas!
I don't mind messing with VoIP to avoid a real screwing, like international
roaming or LD, but it's too flakey or too much work, IMO, to mess around
with to save a few bucks on my cellular bill.

Todd Allcock wrote:

> I can see the Fortune 500 company meeting right now... "Johnson, be sure
> to hand out the PagePlus refill cards to the Senior VPs- we don't want
> their service suspended during the annual meeting in Houston next week!!!
> And check eBay again- that 'new' RAZR you obtained for the CFO was pink and
> covered with 'Hello Kitty' stickers and he's feeling a little silly having
> to talk on it in front of the board!"

LOL, well in a large corporation they have a telecommunications
department that would handle billing and equpment issues, and presumably
they'd be able to ensure that all the phones were operational. There are
no physical refill cards to hand out, and when on the unlimited plan
there is no worry about someone running out of minutes.

One thing that was interesting that I saw on UglyEric.com was "WARNING:
Verizon Inpulse Motorola W385 usually will not work. All other Inpulse
phones work fine."

If this is true, then all those phones sold at Walgreen's, Wal-Mart,
etc., will work fine.

> Too much hassle for most people, and doubles the chance of a service
> problem whenever two companies are involved. Voicestick is a fine outfit
> for a two-bit VoIP, but when's the last time your cellphone company e-
> mailed you to warn you of a five-hour complete system outage so they can
> install a new server? I got one from Voicestick in December, with the
> outage scheduled in the early morning one week before Christmas!
> I don't mind messing with VoIP to avoid a real screwing, like international
> roaming or LD, but it's too flakey or too much work, IMO, to mess around
> with to save a few bucks on my cellular bill.

Perhaps, though I've experienced AT&T outages as well, especially with
their conference call services.

These new unlimited plans seem to be targeted at casual users, not
corporate users, because they exclude smartphones, iPhones,
Blackberry's, etc.

On Fri, 22 Feb 2008 08:27:01 -0800, SMS wrote:

> CellGuy wrote:
>> On Thu, 21 Feb 2008 13:46:21 -0800, SMS wrote:
>>
>>> The
>>> downside is no free nights and weekends, but in reality the only reason
>>> people talk so much on their cell phones on N&W is because it's free.
>>> They could get a 2¢/minute long distance service and still be better off
>>> in most cases.
>>
>> Or go with VoiP and pay no long distance charges (assuming you have
>> broadband).
>
> VOIP isn't free either. You can purchase a yearly plan or get MagicJack
> and hope they stay in business, and hope they keep the price at $19.95
> for subsequent years. SunRocket tried $200, then $100, and couldn't make
> a go of it.

I've been with Vonage for almost as year and it works great.

At 22 Feb 2008 15:55:05 +0000 CellGuy wrote:

> > They could get a 2¢/minute long distance service and still be better
off
> > in most cases.
>
> Or go with VoiP and pay no long distance charges (assuming you have
> broadband).


How do you get "no long distance charges" with VoIP unless you're only
calling other VoIP users? (Unless you are ignoring the monthly or annual
fees and really mean "no EXTRA charges.")

At 22 Feb 2008 11:24:41 -0500 Elmo P. Shagnasty wrote:

> I can see the carriers dramatically changing the non-unlimited plans,
> making them very expensive relative to the unlimited plans. They could
> also reduce/eliminate off-peak and MTM. The idea would be to move
> people off their $70/mo plans and up to the $100/mo plan (plus
> "regulatory fee recovery" charges, natch).
>
> On the flip side, it moves many over to the prepaid side of the house in
> one way or another--which is no doubt what the big carriers want.


I don't think carriers "want" to move people to prepaid- just the opposite
in fact. Prepaid users tend to have lower ARPU and higher churn. Of the
big 4, only T-Mo seems to actively court prepaid users, as opposed to
tolerate them with punitive rates and restricted coverage (AT&T and Verizon)
or even disallow them (Sprint has no prepaid plan at all- they only do
prepaid through MVNOs like Virgin and Boost.)

> It'll just turn into an even clearer definition between prepaid and
> contract, that's all.

I doubt it- it'll just be a forced price increase disguised as "greater
value." The $19.99 monthly plans disappeared years ago, most carriers
dropped their $29.99 plans in the last year or two, and I expect the $39.99
plans are next to go. Entry level for cellular will quietly become $49.99,
with lots of extra minutes so it'll seem more palatable.

Like I said in a prior post, don't be surprised if some carrier will launch
a new "simplified pricing" model soon (6 months to a year) with only two
base plans- a fairly large minute bucket for $50 (like 1000 plus M2M and
N&W) and "unlimited" for $100. Then there will be bundled plans like $80
for the $50 plan with x# thousand texts/MMS x# MB of mobile web/TV/virtual
kitchen sink, etc. and $150 for unlimited minutes/messaging/video/web etc.

At least the brochures will be easier to read! ;-)

In article <NtEvj.1061$%93.500@fe115.usenetserver.com>,
Todd Allcock <elecconnec@AmericaOnLine.com> wrote:

> > It'll just turn into an even clearer definition between prepaid and
> > contract, that's all.
>
> I doubt it- it'll just be a forced price increase disguised as "greater
> value." The $19.99 monthly plans disappeared years ago, most carriers
> dropped their $29.99 plans in the last year or two, and I expect the $39.99
> plans are next to go. Entry level for cellular will quietly become $49.99,
> with lots of extra minutes so it'll seem more palatable.

Well, I do agree that it will be a disguised price increase--beyond even
what they've done over the past two years, which is large.

But it just means that more people won't pay the $50 to $75/month, and
will instead move to prepaid.

In article <47bf10a9$0$36356$742ec2ed@news.sonic.net>,
SMS <scharf.steven@geemail.com> wrote:

> One thing that was interesting that I saw on UglyEric.com was "WARNING:
> Verizon Inpulse Motorola W385 usually will not work. All other Inpulse
> phones work fine."
>
> If this is true, then all those phones sold at Walgreen's, Wal-Mart,
> etc., will work fine.

Yup.

CellGuy wrote:

> I've been with Vonage for almost as year and it works great.

It works okay, but it's very expensive, and feature limited compared to
other VOIP options.

SMS wrote:
> Ben Skversky wrote:
>> Great post. You are 1000% correct. I don't even need the 1000
>> minutes I get from T-mobile, but I'm only paying $39.99 & that
>> includes free nights & weekends.
>
> Yes, T-Mobile is a great deal for a lot of peak minutes. Unfortunately
> they have no coverage yet where I live, and poor coverage where I
> usually travel to.
>
If they had better coverage, they wouldn't be only $40! There's a point
there somewhere that some seem to miss. Maybe it's me. Sorry.

On Fri, 22 Feb 2008 11:44:09 -0800, SMS <scharf.steven@geemail.com>
wrote:

>CellGuy wrote:
>
>> I've been with Vonage for almost as year and it works great.
>
>It works okay, but it's very expensive, and feature limited compared to
>other VOIP options.

"Very expensive" is relative. It's much cheaper than some options and
more expensive than others. I'm well into my 3rd year with the $15/mo
plan and have no complaints.

--
Paul Miner